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What is discretionary income?

What is discretionary income?

This is a question which is important to those who want to balance their household budget. As most people know there are two categories of spending; your needs and wants.

Here is a list of expenditure which can be classed as needs.

Power/heating

Rent/rates

Food

Car expenses

Clothing

Loan repayments

Savings/investments

Some of these items you have some control over. For example you have the ability to choose how much you spend on food. The same is with clothing. You have the option of shopping around for something affordable. You also have control over how much power you use.

Wants are items which are not essential but are optional. Here is a short list of items which are wants:

Holidays

Hobbies

Entertainment

Gambling

Alcohol

Cigarettes

It is what you do with your discretionary spending money which will make a difference to your financial outcome. If you use your money as a seed for your investments then money worries can be a thing of the past. Dental and Medical bills are not cheap and the wise person who sets aside funds for a rainy day can pay for these emergencies in full.

Your personal financial situation will determine what you do with your discretionary spending money. If you have your life ahead of you then you may have more disposable income after your bills have been paid. If you are older you may not have as much disposable income but have more savings behind you.

If you have consumer debt then you do not have any discretionary spending money. Your number one priority as far as your finances are concerned is to pay off that debt. 

It is not how much you make which determines your financial outcome but what you do with how much you make. Some people spend all of their discretionary spending money and are left with nothing until the next pay day.

Here are some stories:

When I was a teenager we were helping a neighbour build a cattle yard on his farm. My father said to the neighbour, “There is no profit in having the best looking cattle yard.”

What he means is that having the nicest looking cattle yard is not going to make any difference to the bottom line profit of the farm.

Years ago, a colleague bought a car for twenty grand. When one of his friends told me, I replied, “If that was me I would have just bought the cheapest car and invested the rest of the money”.

An expensive lifestyle proves costly in the long term. Those who have developed the habit of living modestly are better equipped to deal with the cost of living crisis.

At the end of the day you make your choices and your choices make you.

About this article

The information in this article is of the writer’s opinion and experience and may not be applicable to your personal circumstances therefore discretion is advised.

Disclaimer: Please be aware that if you sign up for sharesies or coinbase through my site then I may receive a small commission.

www.robertastewart.com

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He who never made a mistake…

He who never made a mistake…

never made anything.

You could read all you can about the share market but investors will from time to time go against their better judgement and invest in something because of greed or it is something they are interested in. I have lost money in the past from some of my investments.

Here is a sample:

Air New Zealand (early 2000s)

This company I thought was a reasonably safe investment. Air New Zealand was once owned by the government but it was privatized during the late 1980s or 90s. However, the company almost went under during 2001 I think it was when their shares dropped to 14 cents each from about $1.50. The government bailed them out and still owns about 51% of the company. During covid, the government bailed them out again after the border closures placed them in a financially precarious situation.

Lombard Finance L.T.D

This was one of those finance companies which offered higher interest rates than the banks for fixed term accounts. Lombard as it turned out had too much money tied up in too few projects and when one of their creditors folded it brought Lombard down with them. It lent money to property developers. Lombard Finance collapsed in 2008

Provincial Finance L.T.D

This company lent money for consumable items such as cars etc. It, like Lombard, offered higher interest rates for fixed term than the high street banks. It was also a victim of the Global Financial Crisis.

Dominion Finance L.T.D

Another finance company which fell victim to the Global Financial Crisis. It too offered higher fixed term rates than the banks were offering.

Must be a lesson there somewhere.

These were by no means the only finance companies which went belly up during the G.F.C; South Canterbury Finance and Hanover Finance were high profile collapses. 

Some investors lost their entire life savings in Hanover FInance. 

That is a classic case of putting all your eggs in the one basket; a crucial mistake which affected how some folk will live during their retirement years. 

Greed sometimes over rules better judgement.

We sometimes hear stories of young folk who have bought xxx stock in xxx company which has risen in value by a ridiculous amount. This type of rise is not sustainable and it is only a matter of time before the rising share value slows or in some cases takes a spectacular dive. 

I mentioned young folk because they do not have the past experience of older investors.

It has to be said that those who have made the most investment mistakes are likely to be in a better financial situation than those who played it safe all their lives and just kept their money in low interest accounts. Certainly better than those who are spenders rather than savers.

The bottom line is that it pays to diversify and spread your risk but the level of risk one takes is dependent on a person’s age because younger people have more time to recover from financial mistakes.

A lot of people cannot stomach the thought of losing a few grand on their investments yet would have problem frittering that money on lottery tickets, cigarettes, or booze. In order to achieve more favourable financial outcomes it is important to do a stock take of your outgoings (spending) and transfer money which would otherwise have been wasted into something more profitable. This could be starting an internet-based business, investments, or upskilling.

During the 1987 sharemarket crash thousands of investors lost fortunes. Many of them borrowed money using the value of their shares as collateral and the rising share prices meant that they were able to borrow more money. The collapse of the markets left investors with shares which were worth less than the value of the loans taken out to purchase them. The lesson here is to never borrow money for shares.

Here is a quote from the Auckland City mayor concerning debt levels. “Capacity to borrow is not the issue. It’s the capacity to pay it back.”

The other lesson is that it may be better to invest in upskilling. It never hurts to add another string to your bow.

This article is the result of the writer’s experience and opinion and not considered as financial advice. If you require qualified financial advice see your bank manager or financial advisor.

www.robertastewart.com

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Here are 6 ways to make Capital Gains

The article below is of the sole opinion of the writer and is not considered to be financial advice. If you require advice on a financial matter then consult your bank manager or other financial advisor. You may share this article or publish it to your own site or blog.

6 Ways to Make Capital Gains

Written by R. A. Stewart

There are basically two types of investment income. Capital Gains and Investment Income.

Investment income is income you receive from an asset, examples of investment income are interest on savings, rent from property, and dividends from shares.

Capital gains is the increased value of an asset; examples of capital gains is the increased value of property, shares, and other assets.

Some investments provide capital gains but no income; examples of these are precious metals such as gold, bitcoin, antiques and other collectable items.

Here are investments which provide Capital Gains:

The Sharemarket

The sharemarket offers excellent opportunities for capital gain. For most people, investing directly into the markets is not an option because the transaction fees once taken out for buying and selling shares make it not worth their while, however, there are plenty of managed funds investors with limited means can participate in. Sharesies in New Zealand  is one.  Investors can drip feed money into the markets with Sharesies and there is the option of investing in various funds or individual companies. Other similar types of platforms in New Zealand  are Investnow, Kernelwealth, and Hatch. These are not the only ones though. 

Your retirement scheme invests in managed (Mutual Funds) and they are also a form of Capital Gains. In New Zealand joining kiwisaver is a no brainer. KIwisaver is New Zealand’s retirement scheme.

Property

The property market has been a popular Captain Gains tool for a lot of investors using not only their money but other people’s money in the form of a loan. Income is gained from rents which pays for the mortgage. All related costs are the most popular form of capital gains and the easiest one for the novice investor to get their toe wet in the markets and learn as you go because there are several mutual funds which are available and the start up costs are minimal. In New Zealand Sharesies only costs $1 to get into which gives you the chance to invest in managed funds or individual companies. It is a great way for tax deduction. This type of investment can turn to custard such as wayward tenants. If you are prepared to take the risk then this investment may suit.

Your own home is a good source of Capital Gains if you intend to sell at some point.

Another way to get in on the property ladder is to purchase shares in property investment companies in the sharemarket. This can be done by investing in individual companies or managed funds which invest in property.

Compound Interest

You must have heard of compound interest; that is when you invest in fixed term accounts for x% interest. Instead of receiving your interest payments into your bank account you let them be added on to your principal and you earn interest on your principal and previous interest payments. This is called compounded interest. 

The increase to your capital is called “Capital Gains.”

Interest rates are very low at present (2020); in some instances lower than the inflation rate which makes this kind of investing less attractive. It is important therefore to do your due diligence and not be enticed by some finance company offering higher interest rates than normal, because with higher interest rates comes higher risk. These finance companies offering higher interest rates lend to higher risk types of borrowers. 

I am not saying that you should not invest your money in these companies but rather do your due diligence and at least diversify your portfolio rather than plonking all of your life savings into the one company.

Gold

This one is purely speculative but can be a good hedge against a downturn in the markets. The one drawback with gold is finding a place to store it. Another way to invest in gold is buying gold stocks in the sharemarket. Purchasing gold coins from auction sites such as Ebay and Trademe is another option. As with other investments it pays to do your homework and read all you can about gold and other precious metals. The following website provides information for those interested in gold:

 

Crypto Currency

Crypto currency such as Bitcoin and the like should be treated as speculative investments, therefore, only invest money in this if you can afford to lose it. What I am saying is use your discretionary income to purchase crypto currency. This type of investing can be a rollercoaster but one piece of advice which may be useful is to not just purchase all your crypto currency in one transaction but to do on a weekly, fortnightly, or monthly basis so that there is a chance that you have made a purchase when the currency is low. It is called averaging.

Collectables/Antiques

Investing in collectables can give you a sense of satisfaction and profit when you intent to sell. You really have to know your stuff when dealing in antiques. Always remember, something is only worth what others are prepared to pay for. If someone is prepared to pay $1,000 for a painting at auction then that is what it is worth, however, if another painting is sold at auction for just $10, then that is it’s worth. The value of something is only a matter of opinion.

Recently (2020), some Banksie paintings sold for over $100,000 in New Zealand. The seller of the paintings paid a total of $500 for them in London (UK) some years earlier. It just shows how one’s eye for a bargain can be profitable.

For smaller items such as postage stamps, bank notes, beer labels, and so forth collectors can list their duplicates on auction websites to help fund their hobby.

 

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The averaging system for shares

The averaging system for shares

Averaging is a term which has been used by share market followers over the years. This is when an investor buys several shares in the same company over a period of time and the average price which was paid per share may be higher or lower depending on which direction the share price is going.

Here is an example of one New Zealand company, Fletcher Building beginning with January 4, 2023. The first three days of the year were public holidays so January 4 was used as the starting date and every seven days after that.

Date Share Price

4/1 4.71

11/1 4.90

18/1 5.06

25/1 5.11

1/2 5.25

8/2 5.46

15/2 5.07

22/2 4.81

1/3 4.71

8/3 4.65

15/3 4.50

Now let us assume that you had purchased Fletcher Building shares on each of these dates, investing the same amount of money. You would simply add up the totals of these prices and divide the answer by 11. That is the average price you paid for the share. In this case the average price you would have paid for Fletcher Building shares would have been $4.93 if you had bought them every week. 

We all know that shares go up and down so drip feeding shares into the market in this way will ensure that you have bought shares at a lower price when they are down as well as when they are on an upward trend.

Online trading platforms such as Sharesies and Robinhood make this process easy. If you have more money to spend you may want to choose two or more companies per year to invest in using this system.

As with other investment strategies you need to ask the question  “Where does this fit in with my financial goals?”

About this article

You may use this article as content for your ebook or web page. The information may not be applicable to your personal circumstances so discretion is advised.

Start investing on a shoestring

Sharesies makes it possible for anyone to get into buying and selling shares. It is an online share market platform where you have the option of purchasing shares in individual companies or in various funds (managed/mutual funds). You can even start with $5. This is a no brainer because it gives investors young and not so young the chance to improve their financial literacy. There is certainly no substitute for experience when it comes to learning and this is applicable to everything else, not just investing.

Join sharesies here: https://sharesies.nz/r/377DFM

 

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Share consolidation

Share consolidation-what is it?

One term you do not hear very often is share consolidation. It is a term seldom used because not many companies have used this as an option. This article sheds more light on the term. Hopefully I have explained it well enough in terms that even the novice investor will understand.

Share market price increase may be misleading

If you are a casual share market follower and notice a particular company’s share price has jumped up in price suddenly and you are thinking, “What have I missed out on,” then it all may not be as it seems.

Let me explain.

Years ago around 2001 I think, I owned some shares in Air New Zealand. The company almost went broke. The company almost went bust. It was the government who bailed them out. The share price went from about $1.95 per share down to 14 cents per share. The share price increased a little but still only a fraction of what I bought them for.

What the company then did was increase the share price but you owned fewer shares.

This is how it works:

For the sake of simple mathematics, let’s assume company xyz’s share price is 20 cents per share.  xyz then decides to increase the price of the share to $1. 

If an investor owned 1000 shares at 20 cents, they will now own 200 shares worth $1 each.

Unless you are a follower of the share market you may be unaware of this actually happening. 

I don’t know how often this situation occurs but it may pay to do your homework if a particular share increases dramatically for no apparent reason.

What I have just tried to explain is known as reverse stock split or share consolidation.

This makes the company more attractive to investors. They may hold fewer shares but the real value of the total shares in that particular company is the same. It is just that now they hold proportionately fewer shares.

Share consolidation can be viewed negatively by investors as a company in trouble and this could impact the share price.

One reason why a company may choose share consolidation is that if it’s shares fall below $0.50 for 30 consecutive days then it will be delisted. This is applicable to the New York Stock Exchange and there may be different rules for other countries. 

Another benefit of share consolidation is that it will mean fewer share certificates will need to be printed which will reduce costs.

ABOUT THIS ARTICLE

You may use this article as content for your ebook or website/blog. The information may not be applicable to your personal circumstances therefore discretion is advised.

 

www.robertastewart.com

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The Art of Averaging 

INTRODUCTION

Investors must realize that investing in the markets has its ups and downs (literally) that it is important to keep it all into the right perspective if investments do not go your way. There is a method of playing the markets in a way that you can take advantage of the market drops. 

The Art of Averaging 

Averaging is a term one may come across in the markets now and again; what this refers to is the average price paid for a particular share if you had bought shares in that particular company.

To calculate the average price paid for a particular share you add up the total amount you have paid for the shares and divide that by the number of shares you have bought in that company. 

The answer is the average amount that you have paid per share.

Try this mathematical question:

There are five numbers 10, 20, 30, 40, 50

What is the average number?

The calculation: 

Add up the five numbers:  10 + 20 + 30 + 40 + 50 = 150

Divide the total of the five numbers (150) by 5

150 divided by 5 = 30 (answer)

You can do this easily with a calculator.

There are so many share trading platforms available these days that investing directly into the sharemarket has never been easier for the ordinary man and women.

So how does averaging work?

If you purchase stock at regular intervals you will pay different prices for each stock because share prices go up and down. Imagine if you bought something at the supermarket last week at the full price then bought the same item this week on special. The average price you paid for the item will be somewhere between the higher price and the lower price.

The sharemarket works like that. By purchasing a particular stock at regular intervals you will manage to pick up some shares in it when the price is lower. This is the advantage of saving regularly. 

In fact I think there is a case for purchasing more shares when the price is low. The average price paid per share is determined by calculations as explained earlier. 

The averaging strategy can also be used in cryptocurrency investing. 

Bitcoin is more volatile than the sharemarket so an astute investor who has an eye for a bargain can invest when the price has dropped.

There are so many share trading platforms available that playing the markets is accessible to everyone. I have joined two of them in New Zealand. Most countries have share trading platforms available. Signing up for them is easy; you require some form of identification. Just follow the directions and you are all set up.

TO SUMMARISE

Playing the markets requires a positive mindset and a cool head. If you have these you can profit from falling markets. Averaging is a method that takes advantage of falling markets. 

ABOUT THIS ARTICLE

Robert Stewart has a blog with other articles of a finance nature. Visit www.robertastewart.com Feel free to post this article on to your site, use it as part of your ebook, share it, print it, even sell it.

 

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Investing facts of life you must accept

Investing facts of life you must accept

In every aspect of life there are some cold hard facts that you need to get your head around. Investing your savings is no different. Here are seven facts of life when it comes to investing. Understand these and you will be better equipped to make better choices.

  1. Whenever there is a chance for a capital gain there is also a chance for capital loss

Whether you like it or not, if an opportunity for a capital gain arises then there is also the chance for a capital loss. It is easy to invest when all is going well and the money you have invested has grown but most of your capital gain will come when you are investing while others are selling. It requires patience and self control to stay with your financial plan when the markets are heading south. Your financial plan has to take into account the possibility of a bear market therefore, invest according to your timeline.

  1. It is time not timing which is the key to growing your wealth

The key to prosperity is to start saving early. Once you get into the habit of saving and investing from an early age then things will become easier for you years down the track. Saving a portion of your income means living within your means but that does not mean that you have to be very stingy. It means not frittering away your spare cash on items which are not going to help you financially in the long term. If you are on the verge of retirement or already retired then you have less time to recover from financial setbacks therefore cannot be as aggressive with your investing as the young ones but that does not mean that growth funds are out of bound but rather just balance your strategy depending on how soon you are going to use the money.

  1. Your investments are your responsibility

You may be using a financial adviser to deal with your investments but they are still your responsibility because an adviser cannot think for you; it is up to you to set your own goals which match your personal situation. It is then up to you to tell your adviser where you wish to invest your money. Some investors like to have someone to blame and during a market downturn the first person to blame is their fund manager. In the case of retirement schemes such as the New Zealand Kiwi saver, investors have the choice as to whether to invest their money in growth, balanced or conservative funds. If balanced funds are chosen then there is the choice of what percentage of your savings will be invested in growth funds. Balanced funds are a mixture of growth and conservative funds.

  1. Value is determined by what others are prepared to pay for

Have you ever stopped to ask yourself the question, “What will this be worth in x years time?” The answer is quite simple!

What gives something value is what others are prepared to pay for that item whether it is a painting, someone’s stamp collection, shares in a particular company, cryptocurrency, property, gold, or whatever. 

None of us can know for certain what the market will do, therefore we take calculated risks based on our knowledge and expectation. 

As with anything in life there is no guarantee but if you do your homework and put a bit of thought into your strategy then you can have a nice nest egg to call upon when you need the money.

  1. Life is one big pyramid

One fact of life you need to accept is that life is like a pyramid. Using sport as an example; few ever make it to the elite level, comparatively few that is compared to the numbers taking part. It is the elites who make the most money, then as you go down to each level there are more and more participants. At the grass roots level you will find the highest number of participants, these are the sports men, women, and children who take part in sport for no other reason other than the enjoyment they derive from their chosen sport. 

If you have the ability to make money from your sport then it certainly will pay to have a backup plan by adding another string to your bow.

As for investing, well, there can only be one Warren Buffet, Robert Kiyosaki, or Anthony Robbins. It is important that you be the best at being you and not try to be a second rate version of someone else. Your personal financial choices must be what is applicable to your own circumstances.

 

  1. Life is all about percentages

Most people have played the lottery and most of us whether we have played it or not have heard about the absurd amounts of money which some lucky lottery winners have won; sometimes running in the millions. There is something which you must understand and it is this; For every person who won the lottery there are countless thousands who have lost their money trying the same thing. This is also true of many aspects of investing. You may have heard about someone who made a killing on the share market, on bitcoin, or some other investment but you seldom hear of those who lost everything while trying the same thing. My advice to those who are thinking about taking on high risk investments is to only do so with discretionary spending money and not with your retirement savings or money set aside for a house deposit or a car.

  1. Life is a numbers game

In life you cannot expect to win every single time. That is unrealistic. But making mistakes is just part of the learning process. The fact is that the more mistakes one makes the more likely one is going to win. Some people avoided risk after the 1987 sharemarket crash having got their fingers burned during Black Monday. 

If you do not take risks then nothing may happen to you but then you will also miss out on some of life’s experiences. When it comes to investing you need to take some kinds, albeit calculated ones in order to get ahead of inflation and the cost of living, otherwise the value of your money.

www.robertastewart.com

ABOUT THIS ARTICLE

This article is of the opinion of the writer and is not necessarily applicable to your personal circumstances. Feel free to share this article. Users may also use the article as content for your blog/website/ebook.

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Financial language

Financial language

Written by R. A. Stewart

It is important to familiarize yourself with financial jargon and their meanings. Do your research on the internet for further information on what these terms mean. This increases your financial literacy.

ASSET RICH-CASH POOR

This refers to people whose wealth are tied up with their property but have little cash in the bank.

BAD DEBT

Usually described as consumer debt or dumb debt, bad debt is when one purchases consumer goods on credit. It is bad debt because the item which has been purchased loses it’s value over time.

CAPITAL GAINS.

This is the increase in value of your asset. It is important to keep in mind that if there is a chancre for a capital gain there is also a chance for a capital loss.

CASH ASSET

A cash asset is money in the bank, stocks and shares, and any investment invested with a financial institution.

EQUITY

When someone refers to the equity in their property, they mean how much equity is left after deducting the money owing on the property from it’s value.

DEPRECIATION

Depreciation is the reduced value of any item purchased. A vehicle is a perfect example of something which reduces it’s value over time.

FINANCIAL PLAN

A plan for your money. To address money issues.

GOOD DEBT

Borrowing money for something which increases in value is considered to be “good debt,” however, it is needs to be stressed that if something can increase in value then it is just as likely to decrease in value; shares and cryptocurrency are typical examples.

INFLATION

The is based on the average increase of prices of consumer goods. If your investments are earning less than the inflation rate then you are losing money. 

LIABILITY

This is anything which you have bought on credit and pay interest on. It is said to be a liability. A vehicle is a typical example of a liability. A house could be a liability if it is costing you money but it could be said to be an asset especially if it’s value is increasing per annum.

NON-CASH ASSET

A property is an example of a non-cash asset. 

RISK PROFILE

This is your temperament to risk and is one factor in determining where to invest your money.

www.robertastewart.com

 

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share market crashes

I posted this article on the site a year ago. Thought I would repost it.

INTRODUCTION

It is not a secret that the stock market can be volatile; history has shown us this. There are many factors which are the cause of a falling market; they could be a change of President in the US, correction in the market, or nervousness by investors resulting in them selling off their stocks. Whether a 1929 or 87 style crash occurs this decade or not, one thing is clear; it is still important to save and invest for the future because one thing is certain; you will cease working one day and need something to fall back on.

History of share market crashes

When one thinks of share market crashes two years spring to mind, 1929 and 1987, hopefully, such crashes on the scale which wiped out life savings are not going to occur in the foreseeable future. It is not guaranteed that it will not happen, but then nothing in this world is guaranteed apart from death and taxes.

There have been other financial meltdowns outside of the two main ones. Asian Financial Crisis of the 90s and the GFC of 2008 wiped billions of dollars off share values. 

The next major financial meltdown in the markets could be caused by the very people who will be most affected by it, Baby Boomers.

Why?

Because as more and more of them retire, they will withdraw their savings out of the stock market causing a major selloff.

This has been predicted in the past but there has not yet been any sign of this happening with the markets at record levels, however, who is bold enough to predict which direction the stock exchange will head in the future?

One thing you can guarantee is that there will be another market crash in the future; investors just need to be prepared for it.

Here are the most notable share market crashes within the last 100 years.

1929-The Wall Street Crash

The Wall Street crash lasted for over four years. Investors borrowed money to buy shares and when shares were sold off to repay the money to their creditors investors were left out of pocket. The 1929 crash led to the 1930s Great depression.

1962-The Kennedy Slide

The stock market had enjoyed a steady rise since the 1929 crash with the ten years prior to 1962 being good ones for the stock exchange. This all changed in January when share prices plummeted. President Kennedy attributed the decline as a correction for the rises of the past ten years.

1973-74-Stock market crash

The Dow Jones fell by 45% during the stock market crash which lasted two years between January 1973 and December 1974. The UK markets feared even worse losing 73% of it’s value during this time. The collapse of the Bretton Woods System was to blame. This is a system devised many decades earlier on an agreed fixed currency rate. 44 countries met in Bretton Wood to discuss the currency issue in 1944 hence the name Bretton Woods System.

1987-Black Monday

19th October 1987 will always be known as “Black Monday,” after the biggest one day fall in the stock market in history took place. Leading up to the crash many traders borrowed money to purchase shares and as share prices rose they borrowed more money using the value of their shares as security, however, when the stock market dropped by 20% in one day many investors owed more money than the value of their shares and found themselves in financial turmoil.

1997-Asian Financial Crisis

Many stock markets in Asia fell dramatically between July and October due to an overheated market. Many who bought shares on credit or with borrowed money were hit hard by the crash.

2007-2008-Global Financial Crisis

The failure of several financial institutions in the United States.

2020-The Covid Market Crash

Stock markets dropped 34% in one day on March 23 2020 as Covid-19 was starting to take hold. This started a worldwide recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Who knows when the next share market crash will occur; one thing is for certain, it will be out of the control of investors. It is up to each of us to plan our finances in such a way as to minimise the effect of a financial meltdown in the markets. This can be done by diversification; that is by having your money invested in a range of industries. This way you are not placing too many eggs in the one basket.

ABOUT THIS ARTICLE

This article does not represent financial advice, but rather is the opinion of the writer. It is strongly advised that you seek independent advice from a qualified person. Feel free to share this article. You may use this article as content for your ebook or website. Visit my site www.robertastewart.com for other articles.

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Timing the Market

Would you have been much better off if you had timed it just right?
2022 has not been a good experience for investors with some commentators saying that the first six months of the year has been the worst six month period for at least 50 years.
A little over 5% of the funds in New Zealand have shown a positive return during the six months to June 2022 according to research house Morningstar but what we do not know is what type of fund this 5% had invested in because it is almost certain that if they had been invested in growth funds then they would have joined the other 95% of funds which have shown a negative return.
So are you able to time the market perfectly every time?
The short answer is “No.”
The reason why this is so is that the odds of getting it right every single time is stacked against you.
If there was a method of timing the market perfectly every time then someone would have discovered it by now and you can guarantee that they are not going to share their secret with everyone.
we all have an opinion of some kind n what the markets will do; at the end of the day the markets are driven by market sentiment.
One cannot expect to be an expert on the markets overnight; it is no different to being knowledgeable about anything else. It all takes time and a bit of reading but knowledge does not involve just reading and listening; it involves doing. That is, investing; there is no better teacher than your own personal experience.
Warren Buffett recommends against obsessing over finding a perfect time to buy a stock.
“Don’t worry about what the market is doing or might do, or what the economy is going to do,” says Buffet. “Instead, think about the things you can control. Why am I investing? When do I need to use the money? Then set up an investment plan for your personal circumstances-because your goals can’t wait, but emotive headlines can.”
There is no doubt that investors jump on a bandwagon when a particular stock is rising.
The market is driven by emotion but whether a particular stock will rise or fall is not the only consideration. There is the matter of taxation. If stocks are held for a short period then sold your tax status may have changed to a trader but this area is a bit murky. A capital gains tax is in force in some countries so some of your gains could be reduced by a tax liability.

from time to time you might read of stories of investors who made a killing by timing the market just right but you never hear of the occasions of when these same investors who tried the same thing since and got their fingers burned. Greed eventually gets the better of speculators.
Timing the market correctly can sometimes be down to luck and that’s something to keep in mind if you see an advert from some guru who made a one time killing. Anyone can achieve a one off success but it is doing it consistently which is the problem. It is for this reason why spreading your investment among various forms of assets is the best way forward.
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