Melbourne cup clues that count
There are quite a number of systems for selecting the Melbourne Cup winner using past statistics but in recent years winners of the famous race have taken random routes on their way to cup victory. There does not seem to be a set pattern as far as which leadup races to use as a guide to finding the winner of the Flemington’s famous race. Take a look at the recent winners and you will see what I mean;
2017 winner Rekindling’s last race before the Melbourne Cup was the English St Leger in September. He became the first horse since Irish raider Vintage Crop in 1993 to have won the race on his Australian debut. About 100 other horses had tried to emulate Vintage Crop’s success in winning the Melbourne Cup on their Australian debut since but none had suceeded prior to Rekindling although many had gone close to it. Many Melbourne Cup systems eliminate horses making their Australian debuts and therefore did not select the 2017 winner.
2016 winner Almandin had won the Bart Cummings Stakes on the first Saturday of October at his last race. I’m not sure what the race was called previously but whatever it was it has not featured as a leadup race in any previous Melbourne Cup winner since the 1980s, possibly longer than that.
2015 winner Prince of Penzance finished 2nd, beaten by half-a-length in the Moonee Valley Cup at his final outing prior to winning the Cup. The last time a Melbourne Cup winner started in the Moonee Valley Cup prior to their Melbourne Cup success was in the 1980s.
2014 winner Protectionist started in the Herbert Power Stakes at his previous start prior to winning the Flemington feature. The Herbert Power Stakes had not featured as a leadup race among Melbourne Cup winners since the 1980s, maybe longer than that.
Based on all of this, who knows which route this year’s Melbourne Cup winner will take so it would pay to focus only on those factors which count. One factor that seems to stay constant is that the majority of Melbourne Cup winners will be among the first 4-6 favourites and because the field is often quite open, you can get odds of around 5-1 on the favourite. Backing each-way may be the way to go as you will get a good each way price if your horse finishes second or third, even fourth if you are betting with the British bookies. The place portion of youer bet can save you if a longshot blows punters away as was the case in 2015 when 100-1 outsider Prince of Penzance was successful.
Many punters will get greedy and tery to win the trifecta or first four. The odds of winning one of these types of bets are stacked against punters, the huge dividends only mean that thousands of punters are putting their money into the pool with only a few taking out so my advice is to forget them.
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